Ruben Hassid · 10 min read · Product Strategy
AI will fail.
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This piece curates famous mispredictions about technology and juxtaposes them with later successes like Netflix, cloud computing, the iPhone, Linux, and the internet. It demonstrates that disruptive tech often defies confident forecasts, underscoring the need for adaptable, long-term product strategy rather than fixed predictions.
Key Takeaways
- Predictions are unreliable predictors of future tech impact
- Disruptive technologies often achieve non-linear adoption and dominate markets despite early skepticism
- Effective product strategy requires humility, long-term vision, and willingness to adapt
- Learn from historical counterexamples and focus on customer value and platform dynamics
Excerpt
2008 “ I’ve been frankly confused by this fascination that everybody has with Netflix. ” — Jim Keyes, CEO of Blockbuster, on streaming. Netflix passed 300 million subscribers by 2024. Blockbuster has one store left. 2008 “ It’s complete gibberish. It’s insane. When is this idiocy going to stop? ” — Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle, on cloud computing . The cloud became a ~$700-billion-a-year market. Oracle now sells it, about $34 billion a year of cloud computing. 2007 “ There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. ” — Steve Ballmer,…